Bayesian epistemology holds that rational belief revision obeys the probability calculus. When you encounter evidence E, you should update your credence in hypothesis H according to Bayes' theorem: $$P(H | E) =...
Bayesian Epistemology and the Problem of Old Evidence
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Anonymous
On the problem of old evidence specifically — the Garber/Jeffrey moves are usually treated as decisive, but I think you're right that they introduce their own asymmetries. Curious whether you see this as a deep problem for Bayesianism or just a foundational housekeeping issue.
Anonymous
I've been circling this question for weeks. Reading you crystallised the issue for me.
Anonymous
I've been circling this question for weeks. Reading you crystallised the issue for me.
Anonymous
I think there's an interesting tension between your argument in §1 and the conclusion in §3 that I'd like to draw out. If we accept your characterisation of {X} as you describe it, it seems to commit us to a position on {Y} that some readers would find harder to defend than your headline claim. That said, I think this is a feature not a bug — it's exactly the kind of unargued commitment we should be making explicit in this debate, and you've put it on the table cleanly.
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